PGA Championship Preview

After the major schedule was revised last year, we’d have expected to have crowned all four major champions by this point of the year but in this pandemic interrupted season, and over a year since Shane Lowry’s Open victory, we’re still to find out our first of 2020. Most would find it hard to argue against the general view that the PGA Championship holds the least prestige amongst golf’s four biggest tournaments, and it was bumped up to second in the running order for the first time in 2019 in an attempt to add to its gravitas. This year it gets the opening slot for the first time in its history and so we arrive at Harding Park in San Francisco with anticipation for this event at an all-time high.

While other sports have suffered through their lack of spectators, golf has had its chance to shine in front of bigger TV audiences with some incredible drama leading to consistently thrilling Sunday night conclusions. Last week was no different with Justin Thomas eventually edging out Brooks Koepka to lift the WGC Fedex St Jude Classic in a bunched finish, ending Jon Rahm’s two week reign as world number one in the process. With most of that field present and a couple more stars added here, it’s difficult to envisage anything different as the best in the world battle to lift the Wannamaker trophy.

What will it take to win here?

TPC Harding Park will be a relatively unfamiliar name to most tuning in this week as it hosts its first ever major championship. Located on the west coast of America in San Francisco, Harding Park is a municipal course owned by the city council and is therefore open to the public unlike many courses we regularly see that are privately run. So while many of the locals will have seen the course regularly, professional events that can give us some insight into the test it will provide this week have been few and far between. It last hosted a professional event in 2015 when the WGC Matchplay was held in April of that year and not much is available stats-wise due to the nature of that format, while it had previously held the President’s Cup in 2009 and the WGC American Express in 2005. Golf has changed a huge amount in the last five years, never mind the last fifteen, so reading too much into how the course played at previous events held here can be a little dangerous.

Having said that, there does appear to be a strong possibility that quality driving will be paramount for any player hoping to contend this week. Like another TPC we saw last week, Harding Park will be set up as a par 70 measuring 7,234 yards with only two par 5s this year compared to the three that were in play in 2015. Early reports from those on site have suggested that the course is expected to play long and tough, with cool temperatures and some strong winds forecast for early in the week and the PGA have grown out the rough in order to provide a strong challenge. As we’ve eluded to, there are little statistics available compared to what we are used to seeing these days when presented with regular tour events but both the matchplay and WGC AmEx would back up the presumption that length off the tee will be extremely important. Rory McIlroy, long celebrated as one of the greatest drivers ever to play the game won the matchplay with another confirmed bomber, Gary Woodland in second, and in 2005, Tiger defeated John Daly in a playoff when both would have been amongst the longest hitters on tour in that era and finished 3rd and 1st for driving distance that week.

Other coastal Californian venues that have held major championships in the past could also provide some clues for players who might play well this week, such as Torrey Pines in San Diego which is the regular host of the Farmer’s Insurance Open as well as the 2008 US Open amongst others, and Pebble Beach in the Monterrey Peninsula which hosts the AT&T Pro-Am and last year’s US Open, won by the aforementioned Woodland. Course observers have also noted that there are a number of dog legs off the tee which especially favour drawers of the ball, so the ability to shape the ball off the tee as well as getting it out there could be required to navigated Harding Park’s curving fairways. However, the same notion was levelled at Bellerive which hosted the 2019 version of this event, before Brooks Koepka who plays a fade almost exclusively off the tee was victorious, so it’s difficult to discount the faders completely on that sentiment. But having stressed the importance of length off the tee here, clearly all elements of a player’s game need to be firing if they are to win a major championship and more recently the game’s elite have really come to the fore with Keegan Bradley the last player outside of the World’s top 50 to win a major in 2012.

The Field

The title of world number one has been passed around regularly since the resumption of golf, which really emphasises the tight margins in ability between the world’s top players at the moment with no one able to establish themselves at the top for a prolonged period. Justin Thomas is the latest man to regain that position after a hard fought victory at the WGC FedEx St Jude Invitational last week. That win was the result of a consistent period of quality ball striking, and the Thomas is the clear leader in the strokes gained tee to green category for the season. This tournament holds extra nostalgia for Thomas, having claimed his sole major victory at in Quail Hollow in 2017 and he comes from a dynasty of PGA professionals which he said at the time gave that title a little extra weight. He comes here in the form of his life, but some have cast doubts over his previous Californian form along with his favoured left to right shot shape which may not be ideally suited to this venue.

The man Thomas surpassed as the world’s top ranked player, Jon Rahm arrives in San Francisco in search of his first major victory with the motivation of wrestling back the crown he held for only a fortnight. There are no doubts about Rahm’s Californian form, with his achievements on the west coast including his maiden PGA Tour victory at Torrey Pines and a top 3 at last year’s US Open in Pebble Beach. Rahm’s performance last week in Memphis was disappointing on the face of it but he did close with a 66 to set himself up nicely for a tilt at the major which has yielded the most first-time winners in recent years. Last week also sparked an inevitable return to form for the hat-trick seeking Brooks Koepka, as he yet again sprung to life with the big titles in sight having gone through a relatively lacklustre season so far. This was further evidence that Koepka comes alive on the biggest stage, but his performance last week came somewhat out of the blue and it will be interesting to see whether he can return the same good ball-striking figures this week.

Of the other first-time major seekers, Bryson DeChambeau would have the best chance if he can avoid the local wildlife. This course should play in to the hands of his new found distance but his iron-play is yet to match the quality of his driving and the tough test provided this week may not be to his liking, having unravelled in his second round of the Memorial in similar conditions. Xander Schauffele has been a regular on major leaderboards in recent years and struck the ball beautifully for the past few weeks without posting the finishes to match, a quadruple bogey eight during his second round in Memphis putting paid to his chances of winning there before rallying to finish tied for 5th. The Californian native has looked a major winner in waiting for a couple of seasons and this looks a good opportunity to break his duck with his length off the tee a positive. The same can be said of Patrick Cantlay, another Californian born who is amongst the game’s best ball strikers. Cantlay has had a productive season without winning but has threatened for a while and his ability to shape the ball either way off the tee combined with accurate approach play should see him go well in what is likely to be fairly low scoring.

It’s perhaps a reflection of his decline since his last win at the Open in 2017, but many forget that Jordan Spieth still has the chance to win the career grand slam this week. There have been glimpses over the past few weeks that the Texan could yet be returning to his best but there are just too many wayward drives at the moment holding him back. Tommy Fleetwood has also been a factor in majors for the past few years and his stock draw should hold him in good stead after finding some form in his closing round in Memphis, while fellow Englishmen Tyrrel Hatton and Matt Fitzpatrick arrive high in confidence with a bank of good finishes behind them of late. Young guns Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland and Matthew Wolff have all shown the form and the power required to contend in a major championship recently and could continue the next step on their ascent this week, while older gun Phil Mickelson showed that he can still give his younger competitors something to think about at the age of 50 last week and loves playing in his home state. Mickelson could have been playing on the Champions Tour by now and another wiley veteran Jim Furyk made his debut on that tour a winning one last week, and finished second across the lake at the US Open in Olympic Club in 2012, so might not be done contending at this level just yet.

Dustin Johnson has shown a liking for the west coast on more than one occasion with his power likely to be a major asset here, and he’s always putted on the bentgrass/poa combination found on the greens here better than most. Adam Scott showed he could belatedly add to his sole major victory this year as he flushed his way to victory in typical Scott fashion at Riviera in nearby LA earlier this year, but he is making his first start since lockdown so it’s hard to gauge what to expect this week for all he is used to a lighter schedule then most. Fellow Aussies Marc Leishman and Jason Day could also make their presence felt, Leishman having won the Farmer’s Insurance Open earlier this year and Day has been resurgent in recent weeks having won this championship before. Webb Simpson and Patrick Reed might have the draw off the tee to combat the dog legs but might lack the requisite power, while Hideki Matsuyama gave a timely reminder of his ball-striking prowess last week and he will one day threaten in a major championship when the putter consents.

And of course there’s Tiger Woods. Having chosen to skip the WGC at Memphis last week, Tiger arrives here fresh with only one competitive event played since lockdown at yet another venue he has already conquered. To add to his victory here in 2005, Tiger also won all five of his matches during the 2009 President’s Cup at this venue and he has still shown that he has the power to match his younger counterparts when he is fit and firing. California has generally been a happy hunting ground for Woods and his entire focus since lockdown will have been on this tournament as he attempts to add to his major haul over the next few years. His biggest obstacle this time around could be the weather, as Tiger has admitted before that colder conditions have caused his back to stiffen up and while a full practice round on Sunday alleviates those concerns slightly, in the latter years of his career there’s been an increasing risk that his body won’t allow him to achieve what his talent deserves.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LGoxVZv6Wxk

Irish Interest

Since it was announced that this championship would be played here, it would been marked with a big circle in Rory McIlroy’s mind as being one in which he would feel he would be the man to beat. McIlroy sauntered to success in the matchplay around here in 2015 and his signature long draw off the tee has been the platform to his success for many years. But while that part of his game remains consistent, he has been let down badly with the other elements in recent weeks. A tie for 47th in Memphis was not what the Northern Irishman would have been looking for in the week before the first major of the year and he finished 59th of the 78th in the approach play rankings. There is still the chance that he can figure it out before this week and he closed on a positive note with a round of 67, but McIlroy hasn’t yet found the form he was in pre-lockdown and this will be a tough place to turn that around.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4tXL46LXE4Y

On a brighter note, Memphis represented a real return to form for Shane Lowry who finished in a tie for 5th after four rounds in the 60s and could have gone closer but for a very cold putter. His ball striking figures were excellent however, and that will encourage Lowry who is comfortable moving the ball either way and has the magic short game to get himself out of trouble in the thick rough around the greens. We also can’t underestimate the confidence Lowry will have gained having romped to his first major victory at Portrush last season and after we speculated whether he had wasted his opportunity at major glory when he blew a sizeable lead at Oakmont in 2016, there are no such questions about his resolution now. Any wind that arrives won’t phase the Offaly man and there’s no reason he shouldn’t perform well this week.

Graeme McDowell also quietly went about his business to finish tied for 35th in Memphis without shooting over par, and California will bring back happy memories for him having won his only major at the US Open in Pebble Beach in 2010. He also went close in 2012 at nearby Olympic Club, but though the two courses are only separated by the width of Lake Merced, they provide totally different tests off the tee and it probably isn’t a reliable form guide. Lack of distance with the driver will likely hinder him as he tries to add to his major tally but it could be offset by some windy conditions which McDowell has always been extremely comfortable in. Whatever the weather brings us, we are set fair for a brilliant week of golf.