US Open Preview

With the 2020 PGA Tour season officially coming to a close less than two weeks ago, we strangely find ourselves ready to start only the second major championship of the calendar year with the rescheduled US Open taking place at Winged Foot, New York. Those with long memories could not fail to forget the last edition of this event that was held here in 2006, a renewal better remembered for those who lost it rather than the eventual winner. Both Phil Mickelson and Colin Montgomorie were left scarred from final hole meltdowns which saw Aussie Geoff Ogilvy steal the title from under their noses. Those collapses would define their respective legacies to some extent, with Montgomorie’s career achievements often downgraded by the fact he never lifted a major title while Mickelson’s failure to complete the career grand slam will cast a dark cloud over his otherwise glittering CV for some.

Course setups have been a hot topic of late in the aftermath of Dustin Johnson reaching the obscene total of -30 in the process of winning the Dell Technologies Championship, and the bloodthirsty fans who crave thick rough and rock hard greens should get their fill this week. +5 was good enough to lift this title in 2006 and a year after Gary Woodland reached double figures under par in winning this championship last year, the USGA will surely be keen to restore this championship’s moniker as the toughest test in golf.

What will it take to win here?

Like many courses reserved for US Opens we don’t get to see professional events of this quality at Winged Foot too often, and how much weight we can place in what happened here 14 years ago when trying to find this year’s winner is questionable. In the intervening period, the greens and bunkers have undergone significant renovations and new tees have been built to extend the length of the course in line with modern technology. That means it now measures 7,477 yards which is mammoth by par 70 standards, and even more so when the rough is expected to have been grown to the region of 3-4 inches in height.

But if all that isn’t enough to stop the best players in the world, it’s Winged Foot’s greens which are its biggest defence. All raised and incredibly sloping, just managing to keep it on them will be a difficult task, and words don’t really do their severity justice. Instead we’d recommend seeing them for yourselves, and they are portrayed beautifully in this footage released by The Fried Egg (@the_fried_egg on Twitter) with Ogilvy describing the challenge they pose eloquently himself.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qfx86KMkBy0

With the fairways set to be narrowed to around 22 yards in width on some holes, the staff at Winged Foot have been doing their utmost to ensure maximum carnage this week. In light of that, plenty of players will be trotting out the usual line of “you’ve got to hit in the fairway this week” while putting up videos of themselves dropping the ball in the rough in practice rounds. But in reality, what they should be saying is that if you are going to miss the fairway, you better make sure your as close to the hole as possible. Even though the players didn’t hit it anything like the distance they do nowadays in ’06, that was the case even then with those who excelled off the tee coming to the fore.

As it was pre the strokes gained era, we have to rely on some of the more outdated statistics when analysing the last event played here which aren’t as reliable, but nevertheless Ogilvy was 6th in distance and 2nd in total driving (combination of distance and accuracy) for the week, 13th in greens in regulation, 5th for scrambling and 34th for putting average. Coincidentally or not, those statistics were remarkably similar to those of Davis Love III, who won the PGA Championship held here in 1997, where he was 4th for total driving, 12th for greens in regulation, 4th for scrambling and 2nd in putting. Given their similarity they make for a decent reference, allowing for all the changes that the last 14 years will have made.

It’s also worth noting that the greens feature Poa Annua grass which is more commonly seen on the West Coast of the US and is the surface which divides players the most given its tendency to produce some unpredictable rolls. With that in mind it could pay to look at the results of tournaments at some courses in the California swing with recent events at the likes of Harding Park, Torrey Pines and Riviera worth a second look.

The New York fans are renowned for their raucousness when it comes to golf tournaments and playing in that environment isn’t for everyone, but even without their presence any form at New York venues should also provide good indicators this week with Bethpage Black, Shinnecock Hills and Baltusrol among the tougher venues to have held majors in the area in the recent past. It goes without saying at this point that the winner will have to be sharp in all areas to conquer this week, but if your ruling out potential winners those who lack distance off the tee should be the starting point.

Trackmen Tips

In light of some recent feedback we’ve taken on board, a new section has been added to these previews where rather than teeing up the prospects of the big names each week we’ll do our best to steer you towards a few potential bets if you are having a flutter this week. With that in mind, the first piece of advice we can give is to make sure to have a look at the each way terms each bookmaker is offering this week. Bookmakers have become increasingly generous with the number of places they offer on each way bets for major championships in recent years, meaning they have become amongst the most punter friendly markets to bet on in any sport. When the player you’ve backed has missed a two foot putt on the last to drop to 10th, you’ll be thankful you went the extra few yards to the bookmaker who was offering 10 places rather than 7 or 8.

Headline Tip - Justin Thomas 14/1

Dustin Johnson will likely grab most of spotlight in the lead up this week and deservedly so given the blistering form he’s shown the last few weeks. His runner-up finish at the PGA Championship was followed by form figures of 1-2-1* and that timely run of form led to him taking his first Fedex Cup title as he won* the Tour Championship. He certainly possesses the length needed to contend here, putts brilliantly on poa annua greens, and has finished 2nd and 3rd on his last two major championship starts in New York. Not many negatives there it has to be said, and it would be more of a surprise if he wasn’t in the shake up come Sunday afternoon, and if you fancy him this week we couldn’t put you off. But for all his prolific winning in recent seasons, he still only has the sole major success to his name in this event four years ago, and in majors there are still some questions to be answered about his resolution.

At a single figure price there are just enough negatives to take him on here, and it could be that another one of his compatriots is ready to surpass him in the major stakes with Justin Thomas our most likely idea of the winner. Thomas has enjoyed yet another excellent season on the PGA Tour, winning before and after the lockdown to earn himself the title of the PGA of America’s Player of the Season. That consistency is based on a brilliant long game which saw him top the rankings for strokes gained tee-to-green again last season, and he would have matched Johnson at East Lake on his last start without the starting strokes. His ball striking was again superb there, and his scrambling has improved considerably in the last few years to the extent that he now ranks amongst the best around the greens, which will be extremely important here where most will miss more greens than usual.

If there is a negative - and there is - it’s been that the putter has been ice cold in the last few weeks and he’s not excelled on poa annua greens in the past. You can be sure that Thomas will have been working hard to iron that out during his week off, and a recent scouting trip to Winged Foot with in the presence of Tiger Woods could prove invaluable. Thomas ought to have won at Riviera last year, which is perhaps the most similar Californian venue to Winged Foot and some results lately that on the face of it look disappointing have meant that he’s drifted to a price that looks too big for a player of his quality.

Next Best - Adam Scott 40/1, Jason Day 33/1, Tyrrell Hatton 40/1

To run through some of the other contenders towards the top of the market, Jon Rahm is second in as he bids to break his major duck following another fine season. He came with a final round rattle to win the BMW Championship in spectacular style on one of the tougher course setups we’ve seen this year, and subsequently a poor second round put him out of contention as he attempted to chase down Johnson at East Lake. He undoubtedly has the all the attributes required to win a major soon but just whether his fiery temperament gets the better of him in this severe mental test would be a concern at around 10/1, and whether he deserves to be shorter than Thomas is up for debate.

Xander Schauffele unofficially won the Tour Championship without the starting strokes and has been very consistent of late but hasn’t won since early 2019, while Rory McIlroy will be the pick of many nappy factor proponents and has shown more in his last couple of starts, but not enough to make him a betting proposition when there are still enough negatives around his ball striking in particular.

As a result, we’re looking down the market a bit for our next few of suggestions with Adam Scott the first potentially worth following. Scott looked set for a big major season after confirming his resurgence with a ball-striking exhibition to win the Genesis Invitational at Riviera back in February. Since then he’s had a typically light schedule post lockdown with only 3 starts, but those were not without encouragement. 22nd at Harding Park was respectable given his it was first start back and he played well for three rounds at Olympia Fields before an eventual 25th.

Unusually it’s been his short game which has been the hallmark of his good 2020 season, ranking 9th for strokes gained around the green and 49th for strokes gained putting and if he can find the ball striking prowess we know he possesses, he could trouble the top of the leaderboard. He’s got a good bank of New York form behind him too and finished 8th at Bethpage in last year’s PGA, and he’s one of the few in this field to have played here in ’06, eventually finishing 21st. That experience could count for something this week on this treacherous layout where one wrong move could prove very costly, and Scott will be buoyed by the prospect of making it back to back Aussie winners at Winged Foot.

Of the young guns, the market seems to be catching up with Collin Morikawa’s relentless progress every week and at sub 20/1 he can be overlooked given his inconsistent performances on the greens, while Viktor Hovland putted horrifically at East Lake and his ball striking will need to be near perfect given his shaky short game will be put under extreme pressure this week. Bryson DeChambeau’s big hitting has become increasingly erratic in recent weeks and his iron-play continues to underwhelm, and Webb Simpson might give up too much distance off the tee to his rivals here, for all his prolific scrambling should help keep him in touch.

Patrick Cantlay promised much in the earlier part of the season and it would be no surprise to see him contend here, but it’s Jason Day and Tyrrell Hatton who ended up making our final list of selections. Day’s major history without winning has always been strong and his renowned short game should hold him in good stead at Winged Foot. He led the PGA Tour in strokes gained around the green while continuing to putt solidly last season and while his long game didn’t quite match it, he’s shown glimpses in a number of recent starts that he’s not far away from putting it altogether.

Injury concerns are never too far away with Day but there have been no signs of any ailments lately with four straight top tens preceding the playoffs. Second at nearby Baltusrol at the 2017 PGA shows his comfort playing in the area and while his tendency to throw in a wild drive is always a concern, at 33/1 he’s worth chancing to hang around longer than most.

Hatton on the other hand is in the form of his life and will arrive here encouraged by a brilliant season on the PGA Tour which saw him pick up his first win in tough conditions at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a 7th place finish in the Fedex Cup. Statistically he was incredibly strong too, ranking 13th for strokes gained tee to green and 8th for strokes gained total, and 6th and 10th at Shinnecock Hills and Baltusrol in recent years look good indicators towards a good performance here.

His petulance when things haven’t have started to go against him have gotten in his way in the past but he seems to have made some progress on that score this year and that’s shown in his results, and if he can keep those emotions in check when he inevitably drops shots this week, he certainly has the ability to contend. It might prove to be a tenuous link, but Love III won 5 times around Harbour Town where Ogilvy was also third in the past, and incidentally 1974 Winged Foot winner Fuzzy Zoeller also won twice there, and Hatton finished third there earlier this year. 40/1 in his current vain of form looks well worth chancing.

Outsiders – Thomas Pieters 150/1, Jason Kokrak 150/1

In the absence of the usual qualifying events on both sides of the Atlantic, places in this field were allocated to the top ten performers on the European Tour’s English swing who weren’t already qualified for this event and there does seem to be a more major championship feel to the field this week with plenty of amateurs in action too. Sam Horsfield and Rasmus Hojgaard have both won twice on the European Tour circuit this year and are tempting at 100/1+, but both lack major experience and a test like this might prove a bridge too far at this stage of their careers.

Former champion Martin Kaymer has built on the promise he showed with a first round 66 at Harding Park having gone close on both of his last two starts in Europe, the second of those at Valderrama in similarly difficult conditions to what we’ll see this week. His ball-striking has looked backed to near his best and it would be no surprise to see him contend here if his short-game holds up. That facet of his game is a significant concern though having been his Achilles heel for a while now, and his success in this event came at Pinehurst where there was virtually no rough and he could utilise the putter around the greens. That won’t be the case here and it’s just enough to put us off at what looks an otherwise fair 100/1 generally. Brian Harman appeals as one who will relish the tough test here but might just be found out by his lack of distance off the tee and Canadian Corey Conners continues to hit the ball superbly but just can’t be trusted to hole the putts to capitalise and is just passed over.

Instead it’s a somewhat resurgent Thomas Pieters who gets the first vote of the triple figure priced selections, having been slowly inching his way back to the sort of form which saw him light up the 2016 Ryder Cup at Hazeltine, and the big hitting Belgian will be eager to take advantage of the opportunity to shine on the world stage once more. His putting has been dreadful this year, ranking 137th of the 138 players who have had that statistic measured this season in Europe, but his 3rd and 15th in two starts at Celtic Manor post lockdown were encouraging enough and his ball striking continued to excel, ranking first in strokes gained tee to green on the European Tour this year. While all the new baby headlines will understandably be surrounding McIlroy this week, his former Ryder Cup partner has also recently become a father and that renewed sense of perspective might just help Pieters put aside the frustrations that have come with his loss of form as he bids to scale the heights many once expected from him.

And if one bomber with a terrible record on the greens wasn’t enough, we’re also going to put up Jason Kokrak as our final selection in the hope that he breaks his PGA Tour maiden in the most unlikely of settings. There have been very few recent US Opens that haven’t played into the hands of the big hitters and we expect that to be the case this week, and that should suit Kokrak who’s ranked no worse than 12th in the driving category on the PGA Tour in four of the last five years.

His short game has definitely been a weakness since his emergence at the highest level but he may not have to putt well to get into the top ten here if he can produce the ball striking he’s capable of, and he had hit a real run of form in his last three starts since missing the cut at the PGA with form figures of 15-13-6 coming into this week. All of those starts have shown various levels of encouragement, with positive strokes gained putting figures at Olympia Fields and some good work around the greens in Boston suggesting he might be able to at least compete in the short games stakes this week and at 150/1 he looks worth risking this week.