The Northern Trust Preview

Even on what was supposed to be a quiet week in the world of golf, we got more than our fair share of drama between rules controversies at the US Amateur Championship, the European Tour’s latest star Sam Horsfield making it two wins in three weeks and one of the PGA Tour’s great enigmas Jim Herman racking up the third win of his career at the Wyndham Championship. Herman, who sat at 192nd in the Fedex Cup rankings prior to last week, produced a stunning weekend which broke all kinds of scoring records to take his second victory in as many years, the same amount as Rory McIlroy amongst others in that period. His body of work over the course of his career suggests that he has no right to be winning with this kind of regularity, with all three of his PGA Tour victories coming at odds of 400/1 or bigger but Herman, a good friend of President Trump’s, has shown that anything is possible in this sport and his strike rate when in the hunt can only be admired.

But if the action at the Wyndham Championship last week understandably didn’t quite float everyone’s boat, the same cannot be said of this week’s event with the first leg of the season-ending race for golf’s richest prize kicking off at The Northern Trust. Most professional golfers will always publicly claim that winning major championships is their number one goal each season, but it’s reasonable to suspect that many of them have more than one eye on the 15 million dollars awarded to the leader at the end of this series. It’s that attraction that brings the best of the world to compete this week as they look to put themselves in position to take home that eye-watering sum at East Lake in two weeks’ time.

What will it take to win here?

With the amount of events making up the playoffs reduced from four to three last year, it appeared that TPC Boston as host of the debunked Dell Technologies Championship would no longer feature regularly on the schedule. It has instead been added to the rotation of courses used for this event, and so after a year’s absence we get back to a venue that has regularly provided exciting finishes. TPC Boston is a 7,342 yard par 71 originally designed by Arnold Palmer but went through an extensive renovation by renowned architect Gil Hanse in 2007. Tournaments under the sponsorship of both Deutsche Bank and Dell Technologies were played here between 2003 and 2018 and so there is plenty of data available about what is need in order to prevail here. There are plenty of star names among the list of the last ten winners befitting of the quality of field that generally turns up here:

2018 – Bryson DeChambeau

2017 – Justin Thomas

2016 – Rory McIlroy

2015 – Rickie Fowler

2014 – Chris Kirk

2013 – Henrik Stenson

2012 – Rory McIlroy

2011 – Webb Simpson

2010 – Charley Hoffman

2009 – Steve Stricker

A cursory glance at that list would suggest that no one set style is key to winning around here and the underlying stats back that up. The presence of Bryson DeChambeau, Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy (twice) on that list might suggest that this is a bomber’s paradise but DeChambeau was not the same version of himself we see now and his much underrated putting was the key to that success. Steve Stricker and Webb Simpson plotted their way to success here, while Rickie Fowler and Chris Kirk also relied on the putter as their main weapon. Only Justin Thomas and Charley Hoffman managed to win while leading the week for strokes gained tee to green, with all of the other winners somewhat reliant on holing more than their fair share of putts on their way to lifting this title. Fowler was the only one to have lost strokes in any area as he won in 2015, and even McIlroy never led the driving statistics so lack of distance off the tee is no barrier to success here either. In short, all areas of the game will be tested with the putter often making the difference.

Tournaments in Boston are few and far between so there aren’t too many correlating courses in the surrounding area to give us some insight into who might play well here. Instead it’s better turn to Arnold Palmer designed courses that feature regularly on the schedule. McIlroy and Woods are both multiple winners of the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill while Stenson, who’s finished first and second in Boston, also has five top tens in Bay Hill. Dechambeau finished second at Bay Hill before going on to win this event in the same year so although geographically they are miles apart, there does appear to be some strong links between the two.

The Field

After the cryptic response given to the question about where he would next appear in the aftermath of the PGA Championship, Tiger Woods announced last week that he would be participating in this event and thus showed his intention to see out the three week stretch that spans the playoffs. That looks a good indication of the state of his health at the very least and his tie for 37th at the PGA in the circumstances was a respectable effort, but he’s yet to really sparkle in either of his starts since the lockdown so expectations can’t be too high coming into an event where he needn’t have played with his entry to at least the next event secured at 49th in the Fedex Cup standings. A return to warmer temperatures at yet another course that he’s previously conquered does give hope that a good showing that could guarantee his passage to East Lake might be on the cards.

Collin Morikawa also returns after opening his major account at the PGA Championship and now has Fedex Cup glory firmly in his sights as he currently lies in second in the overall standings. Any doubts that remained about his putting ability holding back his progress were extinguished as he led the field in strokes gained putting at Harding Park. He looks the complete player already and he possesses all the attributes needed to win at any course, but it will be interesting to see how he adjusts to his new found status. World numbers one and two Justin Thomas and Jon Rahm are also back after slightly underwhelming efforts by their high standards at the year's first major. Thomas didn’t putt well there but will be more comfortable in Boston and both possess the deadly short game which often prevails here.

Questions were raised again over Dustin Johnson’s finishing abilities having spurned another good opportunity at the PGA while fellow contenders Bryson DeChambeau and Tony Finau have both played well here in the past and should continue their levels of consistency. Brooks Koepka’s lacklustre final round at Harding Park continued into the Wyndham Championship with a missed cut, but the financial incentive on offer over the next three weeks will be as motivating for him as anything after he let the title slip through his grasp last year. Jason Day and Patrick Reed have been knocking on the door of late and both have come alive in the playoffs regularly over the years. Day’s errant driving may not be as punishing here as it was at Harding Park where his approach play was superb, while Reed’s short game stopped him short of contending last week and he’s poised to make a good defence of his Northern Trust title, albeit on a different course.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O4AF2HLtflM

Cameron Champ, Scottie Scheffler and Matthew Wolff will all be looking to kick on after more than respectable efforts at the PGA Championship, while it may be worth keeping an eye on young Englishmen Tyrrell Hatton and Matt Fitzpatrick who have both shown a liking for Bay Hill in the past. Webb Simpson produced some good golf as he always does at Sedgefield last week and a playoff victory would cap off a wonderful season at a course where he won back in 2011. Xander Schauffele, many people’s pick for the PGA Championship is surely not far away from a win either and Paul Casey, who was just denied there, has been 4th and 2nd here in the past. It’s also worth mentioning Billy Horschel who was excellent in defeat last week, and his second here in Boston in 2014 preceded two consecutive victories which saw him lift the Fedex Cup.

Irish Interest:

After a disappointing performance at the PGA Championship, Rory McIlroy appeared to be downtrodden about his current form saying that “maybe I’m not as good as I used to be” as he finished well down the field in an event he would have been targeting for quite some time. But after a week’s rest and with spirits hopefully rejuvenated, TPC Boston looks a good spot for McIlroy to kick start the second half of the year with a run at the playoffs before turning his attention to the US Open and Masters. He’s clearly found the key to this course with wins in 2012 and 2016 backed up by a top 5 in 2014, and the comfort levels McIlroy will feel here should give him some confidence towards a big finish. The Northern Irishman currently sits at 8th in the Fedex Cup standings so well within striking distance if he can put together some momentum over the next couple of weeks to make it back to back titles.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BwsiT5hVy1Y

Shane Lowry needed a big week at the Wyndham Championship just to guarantee his entry to this event and did just enough there with a tie for 23rd moving him up to 122nd in the list. An even better week will be needed here if he’s to make it to the BMW Championship as only the top 70 in the standings will advance, and he’s actually making his course debut having previously never made it to this stage of the playoffs when this event was played second. Some poor driving cost him around Sedgefield where the thick rough and narrow fairways meant that was a particular disadvantage, but there have been signs of late, particularly in Memphis, that Lowry isn’t too far away from putting it altogether but he’ll need to here in much deeper company than last week.

Graeme McDowell is in a similar boat currently standing at 113th on the list, and TPC Boston has not been a happy hunting ground for whatever reason in the past. Four starts have yet to see him break the top 30 and that record will have to improve if he’s to stand any chance of advancing to Chicago for the BMW Championship next week.