Tour Championship Preview
- trackmengolf
- Aug 31, 2020
- 16 min read
The BMW Championship provided the most gripping finish of the PGA Tour season so far with the now World and Fedex Cup numbers one and two Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm trading punches before Rahm’s knockout blow on the first playoff hole at Olympia Fields. It’s fitting that after such an epic conclusion that we should be given the chance to see the two of them battle it out again this week for golf’s richest prize at the season ending Tour Championship in East Lake.
After the format was rejigged last year following pressure from the Tour’s flagship sponsor, Johnson will start the week two shots ahead of Rahm on the staggered leaderboard which is based on the player’s Fedex Cup positions entering this week. The new look shape to this event has received mixed responses, with some feeling that what has been an important event in its own right has been devalued by not being able to crown its own winner, while others have applauded the tour for trying something different. It definitely makes it easier to follow for us at home with it clear from the outset that the man at the top of the leaderboard at the end of the week takes it all.
With only 30 players remaining in the race for Fedex Cup glory, we decided it would be worth going through them all in a change from our usual structure. So after many regrets during the process and without further ado, here are the 30 players still in with a chance of taking home the $15 million bonus in leaderboard order:
-10 Dustin Johnson
After struggling for form in the early part of the year and in the immediate aftermath of the resumption of golf, there’s been a major resurgence in the fortunes of Dustin Johnson which has seen him soar to the top of the Fedex Cup standings. A win at the Travelers Championship in June was followed up with the most dominant performance produced by any player this season with an 11 shot stroll at the Northern Trust, before being narrowly touched off by Rahm on Sunday night. Johnson has three top 5s in ten appearances at East Lake and has come within touching distance of taking the bonus on a couple of occasions without finishing the job off. He’s producing his best golf at just the right time and will start the week atop the leaderboard in the second year of the staggered format, and a continuation of his performances from the last two weeks will make him hard to pass.
-8 Jon Rahm
Second place in the Fedex Cup standings is the result of another productive campaign for the prodigious Spaniard with victories at the Memorial and the BMW Championship capping off a string of consistent finishes. Rahm has been ticking off the list of golf’s biggest prizes at a rate of knots and reaching number one in the world was a just reward as he’s rarely outside the first page of the leaderboard on a Sunday afternoon. His approach play has been scrappy of late as he’d made a habit of starting slowly before flying late on since his win at Muirfield Village, but he could not have flown any faster when he stole the BMW Championship title from under Dustin Johnson’s nose with an incredible 66-foot putt after a stellar final round of 64. Confidence will not be an issue for Rahm as he looks to capture his first Fedex Cup title and has three solid finishes at East Lake to his name.
-7 Justin Thomas
It’s been another strong year for the PGA Tour’s most prolific winner in recent years with another three victories in this season taking his total to 13 since 2016. Hasn’t built on his impressive victory at the WGC St Jude in Memphis in three starts since but still has a good chance to take this title as he starts the week 3 shots back from Johnson. Started first in the new format last year after a similarly rewarding campaign but failed to convert that position into a victory so he’ll be keen to capitalise this time. He’s not finished outside of the top 10 in his four starts at the season finale thus far but the putter will need to warm up having let him down in recent weeks if he’s to win his second Fedex Cup.
-6 Webb Simpson
After being the only member of the 70 players that remained in the Fedex Cup race that chose not to play at the BMW Championship, Webb Simpson comes into this week with his best chance of winning the $15 million bonus since coming second in 2011. Once plagued by putting woes after the anchoring ban meant he had to completely change his style, Simpson has managed to turn that facet of the game into a strength and his consistencies in all areas this season have been rewarded with two victories in Phoenix and Hilton Head. Despite not possessing the power of some of the other protagonists this week, Simpson has three top 5s in seven starts so far at East Lake and choosing to skip a gruelling week in Chicago will mean he’s fresher than most.
-5 Collin Morikawa
The only major champion of this strangest of seasons coming into this event, Morikawa’s rise to stardom has been one of the highlights of 2020 with a win at the Workday Charity Open preceding his incredible performance at the PGA Championship. His stellar iron-play has been the foundation of a brilliant campaign that also includes a playoff defeat at Colonial, earning comparisons to Tiger Woods with his deadly accuracy. Despite having held him back for most of the season, it was the putter that helped him to major success as well as what is likely to be remembered as the shot of the season on the par 4 16th at Harding Park. This is Morikawa’s first start at East Lake on only his second season in the PGA Tour and this course tends to take a bit of knowing. But Morikawa has blown many preconceptions about those who lack experience out of the water in his short career so far, so who’s to say he won’t do something special this week.
-4 Daniel Berger
Son of former top ten in the world tennis player, Jay Berger, Daniel is more than making his own name in the world of golf with a win at Charles Schwab Classic sparking a consistent run of form unmatched by anyone since lockdown. Having failed to build on his second win at the St Jude Classic in 2017, Berger’s career looked to have plateaued but six top 10s in addition to the aforementioned win has confirmed the promise he showed when making the US President’s Cup side. Three spins at East Lake so far have been uninspiring, but Berger is a different player this time around having not made this event in either of the last two seasons. A slightly unorthodox swing can disguise his quality as he currently ranks 11th in strokes gained tee to green and 12th in strokes gained putting for the year.
-4 Harris English
Perhaps the most surprising name amongst the top ten in the overall standings coming into this week after a terrific season that is only lacking a win. Always highly regarded in his younger days, English looked like fulfilling that promise in the early stages of his PGA Tour career with wins in 2013 and 2014, but it’s been a bumpy road since and he only barely held onto his full status as recently as 2018 after finishing 125th in the regular season standings. English’s game has been in fantastic shape all year with six top 10s including a timely runner up finish in the Northern Trust which guaranteed his place here. His sole East Lake participation to date resulted in a 22nd in 2015 so not much can be read into that piece of form and victory here would mean a huge amount to English having been born and raised in Georgia and played his collegiate golf in the state too.
-4 Bryson DeChambeau
After taking most of the headlines post lockdown with his weight transformation that almost had to be seen to be believed, it’s been a very positive season for DeChambeau as he continues to push the limits of what can be achieved off the tee. His driver has developed into a potent weapon and will hold him in good stead in most venues where length is rewarded more often than accuracy, but as his distance grew so has his divisiveness with several unsavoury incidents with rules officials and cameramen threatening to damage his “brand”. Two previous outings at East Lake have yet to produce any fireworks, but performances from previous seasons can almost be disregarded now and he’ll be doing his utmost to bomb his way to Fedex Cup glory.
-4 Sungjae Im
The iron-man of the PGA Tour, as he’s come to be known thanks to his propensity to play almost every week on the PGA Tour. That quantity first approach rather than picking and choosing his schedule has seen him play more events than anyone else in this field, with a first win at the Honda Classic in March littered amongst a host of good finishes. Long and straight off the tee, it’s Im’s second appearance at the Tour Championship having finished 19th in the overall standings during his rookie of the year season. He’s not shown much in the latter part of the season with two top 10s in his last eleven events but not much in between and a win this week would represent a bit of a shock.
-4 Hideki Matsuyama
Long the darling of the strokes gained tee to green disciples, the last few seasons have been underwhelming for the star of Japanese golf who has had huge expectations lumped on his shoulders since his breakthrough victory at the Memorial in 2014. Despite being winless in over three years, Matsuyama has had his most productive campaign in a while with five top 10s and superb opening round 63 at the Players’ Championship where he was robbed of the chance to build on that strong start. A good finish at the BMW Championship was his best in eight starts since lockdown and he boasts three top 10s in six starts at East Lake where his brilliant long game is usually rewarded.
-3 Brendon Todd
We’ve spoken about a couple of players already who’ve come back from leaner times this season, but none of those compare to the revival we’ve seen from Brendon Todd. Having only earned his PGA Tour status via the Korn Ferry Tour Finals last season, Todd had previously lost all form with only 5 cuts made in 38 PGA Tour starts between 2016 and 2018. That makes his achievements this year all the more amazing, with back to back victories at the Bermuda Championship and Mayakoba Classic last November. His form has been solid rather than spectacular since with the hard work done, but with the game increasingly favouring the power hitters his performances to get to this point are even more remarkable considering he’s 205th of a total of 211 players in driving distance this year. This is his first visit to East Lake in six years having finished 17th on his sole previous attempt, but he’s another University of Georgia grad who’ll just be buoyed to be back at this event.
-3 Rory McIlroy
Having confirmed last week that his wife is expecting their first child imminently, there’s a strong chance McIlroy won’t be making the lineup this week after outlining his intentions to leave at a moment’s notice should it arrive. With that in mind there might be not be much point in discussing his credentials for this week, but if he does turn up he will have to be feared as the defending champion is seeking to become the first three time champion of this series. East Lake has been a happy hunting ground for McIlroy with two wins and a runner-up in six attempts, and while he’s failed to recapture the form he showed in the first half of the season of late, there was plenty of encouragement in Olympia Fields with his driving looking back to itself.
-3 Patrick Reed
The PGA Tour’s resident villain has had another fruitful season with the highlight being his victory at the WGC Mexico Championship in February. 7th at the Charles Schwab in June is the Texan’s best finish since in 12 starts but he’s been threatening to contend for the last few weeks with his short game not quite hitting the heights that he’s used to. One top ten benefitting from the new format last year is the best finish he’s produced in six starts at East Lake so far, and his short game will need to be at its best if he’s to make a run at this title where those with better tee to green credentials usually prevail.
-3 Xander Schauffele
Still young but well established on this stage by now, Schauffele has of yet been unable to convert his excellent play into a victory but he’ll still hold out some hope he can yet end the season with an unlikely victory here having won this tournament in its old format in 2017. 14 top 25s from 17 starts outline his consistency for a player who really has no weaknesses, but some costly errors at vital times this season have prevented him from turning that consistency into wins. He’ll need those ahead of him to underperform if he’s to make a run at this title from -3 but his credentials are compelling with the positive memories from that win three years ago.
-3 Sebastian Muñoz
One of the bigger surprise packages this season has been 27 year old Colombian Sebastian Muñoz, who recorded his first PGA Tour win at the Sanderson Farms last September in what seems like a lifetime ago. Making it this far will undoubtedly feel like a massive achievement having never really suggested he was capable of this kind of season, and a surge through this field to claim the $15 million on his East Lake debut would be the stuff of dreams. He’s shown proficiency in all areas of the game without ever suggesting he’s up to winning in a field of this quality as of yet.
-2 Lanto Griffin
One of the more unfamiliar names to casual viewers, Griffin has gotten to this stage courtesy of his breakthrough win on the PGA Tour at the Houston Open. He’s since backed that up with two top 10s in amongst a host of top 20s including at the PGA Championship in his native California where he showed up well for a long way. He’s been a slow burner with this being his first full season on the PGA Tour at the age of 32 but he’s shown he more than belongs here without necessarily suggesting he has the ammunition to be a factor in this calibre of field from eight shots back.
-2 Scottie Scheffler
Another one of the burgeoning young talents coming through on the PGA Tour, Scheffler’s yet to add a victory on the main tour and that has seen him go somewhat under the radar despite what’s been a highly impressive debut campaign. Five top 5s without winning including in the PGA Championship in his first major as a professional have shown that it’s more a case of when not if he is going to win at this level, and this would be an unlikely source for that first victory given he’s starting eight shot’s back and making his Tour Championship debut. Long, accurate and a little suspect on the greens, don’t be taken aback as he appears to slip on every shot with his unique footwork no hindrance to this top class prospect.
-2 Joaquin Niemann
Completing the South American representation at East Lake will be Joaquin Niemann, who like Muñoz achieved his maiden PGA Tour victory this season at the Greenbrier last September at the tender age of 20. Unlike Muñoz though, Niemann had serious amateur pedigree and held the number one ranking in that sphere for 44 weeks before deciding to turn pro at 18 and immediately made waves on the PGA Tour. He would have to wait until this season for that win though which he accomplished in devastating fashion by six shots. A relatively quiet campaign followed with only two top 10s before an impressive performance last week guaranteed his spot in this field, and his approach play has been strong all season. Still searching for some consistency but bigger things are coming for the young Chilean in his first start at the Tour Championship.
-2 Tyrrell Hatton
The most prominent Englishman in the Fedex Cup standings so far this season and he’s capitalised on a decision to focus more of his time on playing golf on this side of the Atlantic with an excellent win in the high profile Arnold Palmer Invitational in difficult conditions. His ball striking has been outstanding all season and that’s carried him to five top 10s in 10 starts this season. Having looked to run a little hot under the collar when things weren’t going his way in his younger days, he seems to have matured this season and that’s born out with a number of strong finishes. Makes his East Lake debut and should be suited by the test it provides, for all he looks too far back to mount a serious title challenge.
-2 Tony Finau
For many people Tony Finau has been the biggest under-achiever in the world of golf over the last number of years, having failed to add to his sole victory at the Puerto Rico Open back in 2016. No one can crab his consistency though with top 10s in a third of his starts this season and he didn’t do much wrong when just failing behind Webb Simpson at the Phoenix Open earlier this year. He’s certainly one you could see benefitting from the freedom he’s given by starting the week so far back having not always looked comfortable when getting in or around the lead early, and his power off the tee will always give him chances on any given week if the putter consents. It’s his fourth straight start at East Lake with two previous top 10s, showing he’s comfortable around this demanding layout.
-1 Kevin Kisner
Another consistent season for the three time PGA Tour winner without adding to that total but some good form of late that coincided with the playoffs has booked his spot at East Lake for the fifth time. Accuracy and a sharp short game has been the foundation of Kisner’s success and what he lacks in distance he makes up for with an incredible grit and determination. This course shouldn’t really suit his game but that didn’t stop him finishing 3rd in 2017 and he followed that with a 9th place finish last season, and as another former Georgia Bulldog he’ll be keen to build on that good record.
-1 Abraham Ancer
It’s a first Tour Championship appearance for Mexican Abraham Ancer, who’s one of the few players in this field who remains winless on the PGA Tour. He’s come close on more than one occasion this season with runner-up finishes at both the American Express and RBC Heritage helping him to his second consecutive appearance at this event and although he failed to make any real impact on that occasion, he certainly possesses the attributes needed to tackle East Lake and it wouldn’t be a shock to see him finish higher than his current starting position.
-1 Ryan Palmer
Amazingly it’s only the third East Lake appearance for one of the veterans of this field and a first since 2014 after another solid season for Texan Ryan Palmer. His silky long game can often be undone by some dodgy putting but it’s not stopped him producing five top 10s this season with the highlight being a distant second at the Memorial. Like Muirfield Village, the host course of that event, East Lake tends not to be too punishing on the weaker putters and a 7th place finish on his last start at this venue will provide some encouragement.
-1 Kevin Na
One of the game’s more eccentric characters who arrives here courtesy of a win at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open way back October in October of last year. He backed that up with three subsequent top 10s and his prolific putting makes up for some of his shortfalls in other areas. That approach is difficult to pull off at this course though and a best finish of 16th in six starts rather backs that up. Wherever he finishes, he’ll still be walking in 10 footers regardless.
-1 Marc Leishman
A brilliant final round surge at Torrey Pines to take the Farmer’s Championship was followed up by a narrow second at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but since then Leishman’s form seems to have gotten progressively worse. A +30 final total at Olympia Fields where he trailed in last by some way was hardly the ideal preparation for this event and his previous East Lake form doesn’t offer many positives either with a best finish of 21st in four starts. Leishman’s approach play has been as consistent as always all season but he’s just not firing at the moment and this will be a tough place to try and turn it around.
E Cameron Smith
Cameron Smith makes up the duo of Aussie’s in the field this week and he recorded the first solo win of his PGA Tour career at the Sony Open earlier this year having previously won the pair’s event at the Zurich Classic three years previously. He’d been badly out of form since however until a top 20 at the Northern Trust signalled some signs of a return and he followed that with a respectable finish at the BMW to make sure of his place here. It’s his second start at East Lake after missing out last year and he’ll likely need a miracle to win from this far back, but is one to bear in mind when the season restarts having seemingly turned a corner.
E Viktor Hovland
Big hitting young Norwegian who’s enjoyed a fine debut season on the PGA Tour which includes a win at the Puerto Rico Open. That’s been followed by a number of solid finishes for a man who hits it miles despite being slightly more diminutive in stature than others and his approach play has been superb all year. There is a big weakness at the moment however, with his chipping being described as “one out of ten” by current coach Pete Cowen. He’s still been able to contend regardless and when it does improve he’ll be a factor in fields of this quality for years to come. Future Ryder Cupper for Europe and looking to secure rookie of the year honours this week on his East Lake debut.
E Mackenzie Hughes
A gutsy six-footer holed on the 18th at Olympia Fields secured Mackenzie Hughes his first visit to East Lake after a pretty incredible turnaround this season having missed the cut in 9 of his first 11 starts this season with a best finish of 55th. The second place finish at the Honda Classic which followed came out of the blue, but he’s backed it up since with three top 10s. His short game is very much his strength and it will have to be at its sharpest this week if he’s to advance up the leaderboard but getting here will have been a bonus and guaranteeing his spot at next year’s WGCs and majors will have meant more to him than most.
E Cameron Champ
It’s a first East Lake appearance for the PGA Tour’s second best driver this season after his defending his title at the Safeway Open last September. In truth he’s not done much since but a top 10 at the PGA Championship from pretty much nowhere showed he’s still got the ability when the emphasis is on length. Received plaudits for his show of support for the Black Lives Matter movement in Chicago and that might have distracted him as he didn’t cut much ice on the course. Will need to improve other areas of his game to take advantage of his incredible power off the tee more regularly but still only 25 and two wins at this stage of his career is no mean feat.
E Billy Horschel
Last man into this field in 2014 champion Billy Horschel, having been fortunate enough to witness playing partner Corey Conners rip up his ticket for East Lake on Sunday with a 3-putt from four feet that moved Horschel up the leaderboard enough to make this event. Horschel’s never really replicated the incredible run that saw him crowned champion here six years ago but he’s had another consistent season with six top 10s after going close at the Wyndham. East Lake will hold fond memories for him, for all he’s too far back to mount any sort of a challenge of regaining it.
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